10.2.2 The different methods for choosing a color
After presenting the conditions that allow a player to take over a higher quality pool of cards to build the deck, the next question concerns the most effective methods to promote these conditions. How can the player reduce the number of players who share a color with her around the table and how can she influence the colors played by his neighbors? Two possible but opposing methods can achieve this: late color selection or early color selection. It is important to note that by using the word method I mean a series of actions aimed to improve the quality of cards in one particular color. Since in a limited environment it is customary to play with at least two colors, it is actually possible to combine these methods, and this is often done. We will deal with this in detail later (see draft strategies).
- Late pick
Choosing a color late focuses on reading signals much more than transmitting them. This method is essentially passive and gives up the possibility of influencing the neighbors’ choice of colors in exchange for the possibility of acclimatizing more easily to the situation around the table. The player chooses to wait and see ‘where the wind blows’ before committing to a certain color. There are two main sub-methods for finding the least-selected colors in the table. The faster sub-method is reading the first signals received from neighbors on the right. The second sub-method is waiting to receive clearer messages from the entire table, which can only be done near the middle of the first booster. The success of each sub-method depends on the formation of favorable conditions. As we will see, the second sub-method is much more demanding in this respect and therefore sometimes too dangerous to commit to in advance. Also, the player wants to know as early as possible the colors she will play in order to send clear signals and especially to make it easier for her to achieve synergy. Therefore, in most cases it will be used by default if the first sub-method did not produce satisfactory results.
Sub-method 1: This sub-method allows for a high degree of probability in identifying the colors that are not chosen by neighbors on the right. Remember, the fact the boosters are passed twice clockwise makes these neighbors more important. In order to diagnose which colors are not drafted by these neighbors, hints must be gathered. Each booster the player receives (apart from the first booster she opens) provides an important piece of information that she must decipher. As the player delays her decision, she is exposed to more information and therefore there is greater certainty that she will be able to identify the colors played by her neighbors. However, this waiting also has disadvantages, as we will see later.
The main sign we use to decipher those colors that are not chosen by the neighbors is the existence of quality cards (category A above). The neighbor passing these cards is aware of the fact that they will almost certainly be chosen by the player on the left and therefore will usually refrain from choosing this color later. The second sign is the number of additional playable cards (category B) found in the same booster. The reason for this is that ‘short series’ (that is, a series of a certain color in which only one card is playable or of high quality) are particularly suitable for transmitting reliable signals, and therefore if the player on the right decided to give up this opportunity, she will assume that the player on his left will jump at the bargain and from now on be committed to that color. Therefore, a player may assume that short color series of good cards are a reliable indication that the players on his right are not picking that color.
First Pick: No information.
Second Pick: If there is a category A card, there is a high probability that the first neighbor on your right did not pick this color. This hypothesis is strengthened if this card is the only high-quality or playable card of the same color.
Third Pick: If there is a second category A card of the same color, we can assume with a high degree of certainty that the first neighbor to your right did not pick this color. There is also a degree of probability that the second neighbor on your right did not pick the color. If a category A card of a different color is revealed, the new color should be preferred because it is a clearer signal (in accordance with the principle that the later a quality card is passed, the more likely it is that the color in question is less drafted). Here, too, the length of the series must be taken into account.
Fourth Pick: The chance of getting boosters with category A cards diminishes as we progress in the draft. Identifying such a card in the fourth pick and so on is a clear sign that this color is underdrafted not only by your neighbors but around the entire table.
Contributing Conditions for Reading Signals Strategy: (1) The players on the right are experienced and therefore expected to convey reliable messages (they know how to evaluate cards accurately and also control the various nuances of conveying messages); (2) The neighbors on the right use a strategy of pre-selecting colors.
Sub-method 2: This method does not focus on reading the initial signals received from neighbors on the right but on the colors that are chosen less at the table in general. The assumption is that regardless of the order in which the players are sitting, choosing a color that is underdrafted will allow the player to obtain a high-quality card pool even if her neighbor to the right shares the same color. Of course, this requires an unequal distribution of colors. Since this situation does not often materialize, and since this method requires us to receive signals from all the players at the table (which is why it is relevant from a relatively late stage in the first booster), it is a default for the case in which the player did not receive clear signals regarding the colors not chosen by her neighbors to the right. Again, the assumption is that a player, even if she chooses the method of late selection, still strives to know as early as possible what colors she will play in order to send clear signals and build a pool of cards around a strategic idea.
The method itself is based on finding category B cards that are still circulating on the table from the middle of the first booster (seventh or eighth pick) onwards. Basically, in the event of an even distribution of colors, there shouldn’t be many category B cards still circulating on the table. If at this advanced stage we recognize a trend (even fragmentary) of category B cards of a certain color, then there is a high degree of certainty that this color is under-drafted.
Advantages and Disadvantages: The most obvious advantage of choosing colors late is flexibility, meaning the ability in most cases to assemble a higher quality card pool in absolute terms. This is because this method is more effective in identifying the colors that are underdrafted as well as those not chosen by neighbors on the right, which are known to be more important. However, the benefit that can be derived from this strategy depends on a series of preconditions: an uneven distribution of the colors on the table and neighbors on the right who choose methods of early color selection. Also, this method suffers from another flaw: it often misses the first pick in the first booster because at this stage the player still does not know it will be one of his picked colors. That’s why players often use a mix strategy that combines an early and a late method, thus guaranteeing that the first picks will not be wasted. Another problem with this method is insensitivity to the synergistic dimension. The color was chosen according to the quality of the cards and not according to its compatibility with another color that I had already chosen (see the discussion of the different strategies below).
Contributing Condition: an unbalanced distribution of colors at the table (so that there is a color that is considerably underdrafted).
- Early pick:
This method focuses on manipulation, that is, on transmitting messages rather than on reading them. It is active and seeks to influence the distribution of colors at the table, specifically the colors chosen by neighbors on the left. It is much less sensitive to the detection of existing trends and therefore has difficulty in accommodating. In general, this method involves choosing a color consistently from the beginning of the draft, even if this does not mean automatically choosing a card of that color no matter what. Basically, the player wants to prevent the possibility that the neighbors on the left will choose the same color as well as reducing the number of players at the table who choose this color. This of course requires the selection of category A cards in this color from the first pick onwards. But that is not enough. The player must frequently choose category B cards of this color (and by the way give up category A cards of other colors) in order to make sure that his neighbors will not begin to pick the same color and to continue to influence the number of players at the table who choose this color. As with the later method, the early method can also be divided into two sub-methods:
Sub-method 1: Pre-Draft Selection: In this sub-method, the player selects the color even before the draft begins. There can be two reasons for this. First, the player may want to gain an advantage by specializing in a certain color even at the cost of inflexibility during the draft itself. As every constructed player knows, training is 90% of success. A player who practices a certain deck for a long time gives herself a considerable advantage, to a level that it often pays for her to continue playing the same deck even if it is not the most suitable for the meta-game. The versatility of the decks in a limited environment does not allow you to train on a particular deck. However, it certainly allows the acquisition of expertise with a color in a given set. This expertise may compensate the player for lower card quality due to the lack of flexibility when choosing the color in the draft itself. It also allows her to enjoy the advantages that a pre-selection method generally provides.
A second reason for pre-draft selection is the detection of a particular trend regarding a specific color that makes it particularly easy to manipulate in a given set. It is not unusual for a color to be underdrafted in a certain set. Picking that color in advance is often a good strategy: in so doing, it is relatively easy to prevent other players picking that color.
In the long run, this sub-method is also able to reward in another respect: its repeated use allows, over time, a learning process. The other players ‘learn’ that the player always chooses a certain color, and this may convince the neighbors on the right to choose other colors in advance. In this way, the player also obtains some of the advantages of the late selection method.
Zvi Moskovitz is one of the most colorful players in the history of the game. His pranks, typical spunk and witty sayings are well remembered by anyone who was lucky enough to be present at a tournament in which she participated. During the Mirrodin set, Zvi arrived at the tournament wearing a shirt with the inscription I love white on it. White was a relatively weak color in the set and therefore was naturally often underdrafted. Here and there a player who chose white would find herself with an amazing card pool for the simple reason that she was the only player at the table who chose this color. But there was a gamble in it. When other players also entered white, they would come out with a relatively weak deck. Of course, it is strictly forbidden to coordinate colors in the draft, but who can complain about what players choose to wear?
Sub-method 2: Pre-selecting a color can also occur within the draft itself, according to the first or second picks. Two considerations should guide the player in this choice: what is the card with the highest quality; what color series is more convenient for manipulation, i.e., the one in which the highest quality card is taken will not be attractive anymore. This sub-method has two advantages over sub-category 1 early-choice strategy: (1) The player enjoys the first pick, which may be a card of the highest quality; (2) The player improves the chances that the manipulation will succeed as she matches the choice to the characteristics of the booster.
Advantages and Disadvantages: The most significant advantage of the method of pre-selecting colors is the ability to achieve higher synergy. The reason for this is that early recognition of the color being played allows a focus on the strategic idea from the beginning of the draft as well as a greater ability to achieve mechanical synergy (more on synergy in the draft later). Another advantage is the possibility of enjoying all the quality cards of the color from the beginning of the draft. Also, the player is less sensitive to certain conditions that develop at the table, such as the equal distribution of colors at the table or the strategies chosen by neighbors. For these advantages, the player often pays by giving up the chance to acclimatize better to trends at the table, trends that under certain conditions may give a considerable advantage to those who are sufficiently sensitive in acting upon them.
10.2.3 Combining strategies in the draft
In the previous part I presented the different methods for choosing a color in a draft. As you know, a limited environment usually requires the use of at least two colors. Choosing only one color is not sufficient in a draft because the player will find herself with a pool of cards that is not good enough in terms of quantity and quality. It is not necessary for the player to choose two colors with a similar method: she can combine methods, and this is often done. Below I present in a general form several strategies typical of a draft. By draft strategy I mean the pattern in which the player selects colors during the draft.
- Conservative strategies: A combination of early and late selection methods
In general, strategies that combine early and late color selection methods are attractive because they are ‘safer’: the use of both methods in combination reduces the disadvantages inherent to each of them individually.
Choosing According to the First Picks/Reading The Neighbors’ Signals: This strategy is probably the most common in MTG drafts. Beginner players (but not only them!) feel comfortable with it because it allows them to get the best of the first picks and still keep in touch with the developing situation at the table. There is nothing wrong with this, and this strategy can be very effective. A problem arises when the players choose the second color only according to the signals they receive and do not take into account the need to match this color with the previous one in order to achieve functional or mechanical synergy.
Pre-Draft Selection/Reading the table Signals: This method is more attractive to experienced players. It allows the selection of a color based on previous specialization or as a consequence of analyzing the environment and focusing on colors estimation of the set. At the same time, it allows the player to choose the second color according to quality considerations, while of course placing emphasis on matching the first color. Failure to receive clear signals from the right may lead the player to choose the additional color according to the spells she has already taken or to wait for signals from the entire table (this may be very profitable).
- Gambler’s strategies: Focusing on one method
These strategies use similar color selection methods. Under certain conditions this may pay off, but there is a risk as they are much more sensitive to the formation of favorable conditions. Despite this, it is recommended that every player at least try each of them once: she can learn a lot from this.
Reading the Neighbors’ Table Signals for Both Colors: This strategy focuses on achieving superior card quality in absolute terms. It may reward the player in relatively uncommon situations when there is an uneven distribution of more than one color and an uneven distribution of the color selection (for example, when the neighbors on the right play similar colors or share at least one color). Using this strategy sometimes makes it possible to obtain an amazing pool of cards in terms of quality. However, as mentioned, this is a gamble. In any case, considerations of synergy should not be given up in this case either.
Pre-Draft Strategy: In this case the player comes to the draft with a ‘closed’ plan of action. she applies it without considering the conditions that develop at the table (however, she can build an alternative strategy if certain conditions do not materialize. For example, if she was unable to get his hands on certain cards around which the strategic idea is built). This strategy works better when the cards that the player plans to take control of are not usually sought after by the other players as they are of relatively low quality individually.
